However, in most cases the BRT team may have to start nearly from scratch.

If a good quality transport model already exists, it should be possible to simply put the public transport system and the proposed BRT scenario into the existing model. Data is also far too often of poor quality. Others may have been created for building a metro, and not usable without additional work. Sometimes, existing models were designed for highway or transport departments and are only usable for motor vehicles, with very limited information on the public transport system. But these models have generally been created for a specific purpose, and the purpose has rarely been to design a BRT system. In many cities, some sort of transport model will already exist. It will also enable the planning team to much more easily test the demand for different alternative scenarios for fares, as well as to optimize operational characteristics. With this basic public transport model, it will be possible to develop a much more robust estimate of the demand on the existing system. This section will describe how to build a basic transport model that models only the public transport system.

This requires two new elements: the construction of a trip matrix and a route-choice model. As a BRT system expands into a multi-route system, there will be many opportunities to significantly improve services and system efficiency by modifying routes and services, and the potential financial savings should more than pay for the additional cost and trouble associated with building a robust public transport model. In particular, full OD information can inform the design of direct services that reduce the need for customers to transfer from one line to another. In most cases, a new BRT system will make changes in bus routes, and knowing the origins and destinations of trips (as opposed to boarding and alighting) is important to ensuring that the new services are closely aligned with where customers want to go. However, this data does not provide information on where people wish to travel. Immanuel Kant, philosopher, 1724–1804Īggregating boarding, alighting, and customer flows, as in the previous section, provide a useful “first cut” approach to demand estimation. 4.4 Estimating Demand with a Public Transport Model The best way to predict the future is to invent it.

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